The recent earthquake cluster is similar to a cluster that occurred in the middle of the 1900′s, says Charles Bufe, a seismologist retired from the US Geological Survey (USGS) in Denver, Colorado.
According to a model by Bufe and David Perkins, a USGS geophysicist, the probability of another quake of magnitude 9 or larger striking in the next 6 years is about 63 per cent.
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An Ounce of Prevention: Catastrophe Risk Trends in Insurance, Finance, and Modeling
by Claude Penland, ACAS, MAAA
It’s estimated that there was over $250 billion of economic loss worldwide associated with catastrophes in 2010, with $38 billion in insured loss. The cause was a succession of meteorological evils of almost Biblical proportions: Five severe weather events (tornadoes, hail, severe thunderstorm winds), one winter-based storm event (snow, icing, cold temperatures, and damaging winds), two earthquake events, and two flood events, layered on top of lesser winter storms, severe weather, flooding, tropical cyclone activity, earthquakes, and wildfires.
Looking ahead, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University forecasts the 2011 hurricane season will be exceptionally active. It’s been five years since a major hurricane struck the U.S. coast. Are we due? And, more importantly, what should we do?
Read the rest of the article as published in Contingencies, May/June 2011 issue.
(If you have trouble with that link, the article is available via .pdf as well.)
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